Underlying web site usage growth has stalled?

My understanding is that internet usage at work in the UK is on the up, broadband pentration is quite dramatically on the up (4 out of 10 internet users according to NOP), the internet’s share of media consumption time is up (to around 12%), the total time people spend online is up (to 16hrs per week for broadband households and 94 minutes per week if you’re on dial-up, according to Ofcom)  and overall internet penetration hasn’t grown that much of late, stablising at just under 60% of the population (58% according to NOP).

Given the above you might expect that all UK web sites should see some underlying growth in traffic levels as people spend more time online and more people come online (albeit more slowly now and perhaps only at work)?

However, having talked to a number of site owners (mostly larger, well-established, recognised sites / brands that have been around for 5yrs or so), it seems that actually very few sites are experiencing this underlying growth if you exclude other factors (like increased marketing to attract new users). If anything, the trend is the other way.

What have others found? Is the above a fair assessment? (Obviously this trend is not the same for newer sites where traffic typically grows for at least 1yr)

If this is true it might suggest a number of things:

• Increased competition, and the rise in the sheer volume of web sites, is making it harder to attract users to your site: the increase in the volume of web content far outstrips the increase in web usage
• Customer retention should have much more of a focus than it perhaps does currently for site owners focusing primarily on ’traffic’. As the total amount of available "attention" that your site might attract reaches saturation the battleground is not customer acquisition but customer retention (customer service, loyalty programs, personalisation, special tools and services, communities etc.)
• Now is the time to go hell-for-leather in acquiring new customers (and then holding on to them). Despite my suggestion about focusing on retention above, perhaps there is currently a fast-closing window of opportunity to try and mop up the dwindling number of available new customers who might be interested in what you have to offer? As everyone becomes more savvy about things like Search Engine Marketing, Affiliate Marketing, E-mail Marketing and so on it is perhaps imperative to get in there now, while you can, to build a customer base before focusing on keeping them?
• Users are looking at fewer sites on a regular basis. As users become more accustomed to the web, they actually look at fewer new sites on average compared to internet newbies. They know where to go for their basic needs and so only more occasionally browse around looking at new sites.

Comments?

Ashley